Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Ümraniyespor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 9 Feb 2025

📅09/02/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
25%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
51%
1.82
Over
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.24
2-3
43%
1.8
4-5
20%
3.7
6+
10%
15.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.93
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.1
X/1
18%
4.82
X/2
10%
6.86
X/X
10%
4.62
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
8%
5.05
2/X
13%
13.75
Value flag · 2/X at 13.75 — our 13% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
45%
+2.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
25%
Away Win
28%
-3.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.8pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
1.31/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.55
-5% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
352 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
18.2 Crosses 16.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ümraniyespor
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.48 xG 2.02
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
289 Passes 357
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.12.2024 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-2 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TÜK
31.08.2024 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-2 HT 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
18.04.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 4-2 HT 2-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor TSL
22.10.2022 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-3 HT 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
21.06.2020 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-1 HT 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
23.11.2019 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 2-3 HT 1-0 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
1-0
AWAY Ümraniyespor
1.26 xG 0.79
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 5
354 Passes 269
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük squeezed past Ümraniyespor 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fatih Karagümrük as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 55% of the ball to Ümraniyespor's 45%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 1.26 to 0.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fatih Karagümrük had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.67 for Ümraniyespor.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?

Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Ümraniyespor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 09/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fatih Karagümrük win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 47%, draw 28%, Ümraniyespor 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
T1L More Turkey - 1st Division
9 Feb 2025
13:30 Bandırmaspor vs Şanlıurfaspor Analysis →
13:30 Boluspor vs Keçiörengücü Analysis →
16:00 İstanbulspor vs MKE Ankaragücü Analysis →