Sion 2-1 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 9 Mar 2025

Sion
2-1 HT 1-1
Lugano
📅09/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.97
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
4.01
6+ Goals
11%
18.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.26
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
9%
13.25
X/1
14%
5.99
X/2
16%
5.3
X/X
7%
4.28
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
14%
3.53
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.0
Value flag · 2/X at 13.0 — our 12% vs market 4.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.0pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.0pp
38%
Away Win
38%
-0.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.6pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sion EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 42%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
1.36/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/0.94
+0% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +28%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
275 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 80%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
19.8 Crosses 19.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sion
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Lugano
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.74 xG 1.47
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
221 Passes 478
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2025 Lugano Lugano 3-2 HT 1-1 Sion Sion İSV
22.09.2024 Sion Sion 0-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
27.04.2024 Sion Sion 0-2 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSVK
23.04.2023 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 0-0 Sion Sion İSV
05.03.2023 Sion Sion 1-1 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
01.03.2023 Sion Sion 0-3 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSVK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sion
2-1
AWAY Lugano
2.04 xG 2.29
34% Ball Possession 66%
14 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 7
171 Passes 399
69% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sion vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sion nicked a narrow win over Lugano 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 38% — and on the day Sion made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Sion had 34% of the ball to Lugano's 66%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 2.04 to 2.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sion and 1.83 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Sion vs Lugano?

Sion 2-1 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sion vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sion 34%, draw 28%, Lugano 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lugano) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lugano) ✓ BTTS Yes
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