Luzern 1-1 Basel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 9 Mar 2025

Luzern
1-1 HT 0-1
Basel
📅09/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.23
Over 2.5
60%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.68
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
27%
2.89
6+ Goals
15%
8.09
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.7
1/2
9%
21.7
1/X
10%
12.95
X/1
8%
7.23
X/2
10%
5.14
X/X
10%
5.53
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
23%
2.78
2/X
6%
12.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
42%
Away Win
45%
-3.5pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.5pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.1pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Basel EU Bookmakers 49%
-11% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.37/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.27
-18% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +24%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
291 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 80%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
20.2 Crosses 17.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Basel
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.34 xG 1.22
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 4
329 Passes 346
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.02.2025 Basel Basel 2-1 HT 1-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
29.09.2024 Luzern Luzern 1-0 HT 0-0 Basel Basel İSV
05.05.2024 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
21.04.2024 Luzern Luzern 1-1 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
17.12.2023 Luzern Luzern 0-1 HT 0-0 Basel Basel İSV
28.09.2023 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
1-1
AWAY Basel
0.76 xG 1.18
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
270 Passes 435
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Basel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luzern and Basel shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Basel at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while over 2.5 goals (60%) missed.

On the day, Luzern had 41% of the ball to Basel's 59%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 0.76 to 1.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Basel led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Luzern and 1.00 for Basel.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Basel?

Luzern 1-1 Basel in the Switzerland - Super League on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Basel?

Before kick-off our model rated an Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Luzern 32%, draw 26%, Basel 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Basel), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Basel) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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