Hajduk Split 2-1 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
19%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.27
No
60%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
67%
-11.6pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.9pp
19%
Away Win
12%
+6.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
+0.1pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 15%
-6% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -12%
1.40/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.62
-7% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +4%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
345 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 71%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
20.3 Crosses 13.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
4W-0D-2L
AWAY HNK Gorica
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.83 xG 0.74
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
409 Passes 305
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
21.09.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 4-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
19.05.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
09.03.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-3 HT 0-3 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
02.12.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
17.09.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-1 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
2-1
AWAY HNK Gorica
0.64 xG 1.08
38% Ball Possession 62%
5 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
239 Passes 440
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 11
13 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hajduk Split nicked a narrow win over HNK Gorica 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hajduk Split as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 38% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 62%, shots finished 5-10, expected goals 0.64 to 1.08 — on chances, HNK Gorica could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Hajduk Split and 0.83 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica?

Hajduk Split 2-1 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 55%, draw 26%, HNK Gorica 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hajduk Split) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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