Slaven Belupo 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 9 Mar 2025

📅09/03/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.69
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
49%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.48
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.12
6+ Goals
8%
10.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 30% vs market 22.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
14%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
24%
+4.3pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.0pp
49%
Away Win
51%
-2.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.9pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 55%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -18%
0.90/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.88
+3% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +4%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
268 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 79%
15.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
18.7 Crosses 21.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slaven Belupo
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.91 xG 1.85
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
235 Passes 416
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 32
14 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.12.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
21.09.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 4-1 HT 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
18.05.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-3 HT 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
10.03.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 5-2 HT 2-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
04.12.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-2 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
16.09.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 HT 1-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slaven Belupo
0-1
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
0.25 xG 3.61
33% Ball Possession 67%
3 Total Shots 24
0 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 11
186 Passes 446
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
4 Box Touches 41
4 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb nicked a narrow win over Slaven Belupo 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Dinamo Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Slaven Belupo had 33% of the ball to Dinamo Zagreb's 67%, shots finished 3-24, expected goals 0.25 to 3.61 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Dinamo Zagreb's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Slaven Belupo and 2.50 for Dinamo Zagreb.

What was the final score of Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Slaven Belupo 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Slaven Belupo 28%, draw 23%, Dinamo Zagreb 49%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HIR More Croatia - 1. HNL
9 Mar 2025
17:00 Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica Analysis →