Toluca 3-1 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 9 Mar 2026

Toluca
3 - 1 HT 0 - 0
FC Juarez
📅09/03/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✓
Mexico - Primera – 2025/2026

Toluca vs FC Juarez Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
66%
1.53
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
14%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.1
Over
57%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
21%
3.76
2-3
45%
1.78
4-5
26%
2.94
6+
8%
9.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
1%
1/X
4%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Toluca v FC Juarez — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Toluca The Market 66%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez The Market 20%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
2.47 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 0.87
1.03 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.77
Great Attack Strength Average
Weak Defense Strength Average
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
372 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 77%
25 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2

Toluca vs FC Juarez Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
3W-2D-1L
AWAY FC Juarez
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.06 xG 0.56
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
385 Passes 329
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
30.11.2025 Toluca Toluca 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
27.11.2025 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-2 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
12.08.2025 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-2 HT 0-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
23.02.2025 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-4 HT 0-3 Toluca Toluca MEK
09.03.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
16.07.2023 Toluca Toluca 2-4 HT 1-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK

Toluca 3-1 FC Juarez — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
3 - 1
AWAY FC Juarez
2.23 xG 0.27
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
417 Passes 196
90% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 6
25 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 4
REVIEW Toluca vs FC Juarez
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Toluca saw off FC Juarez 3-1. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.

The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

By the numbers, possession split 65% to 35% in Toluca's favour, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.23 to 0.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.83 a game for Toluca against 1.00 for FC Juarez.

Toluca vs FC Juarez Result & Final Score

Toluca 3 - 1 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 09/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Toluca vs FC Juarez Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Toluca 66%, draw 20%, FC Juarez 14%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
9 Mar 2026
06:06 Tijuana vs Santos Laguna Analysis →