Newport County 1-3 Accrington Stanley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 9 Apr 2024

Newport County
1-3 HT 1-1
Accrington Stanley
📅09/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Newport County vs Accrington Stanley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
37%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.8
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.22
6+ Goals
11%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.8 — our 29% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.09
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
13%
6.16
X/2
14%
5.21
X/X
14%
4.92
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
15%
3.22
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+4.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
37%
Away Win
40%
-3.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.2pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Accrington Stanley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Accrington Stanley EU Bookmakers 45%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.32/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.70
+10% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
238 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 71%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
22.3 Crosses 16.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.0

Newport County vs Accrington Stanley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Accrington Stanley
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
The Meetings
05.08.2023 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 3-0 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
24.04.2018 Newport County Newport County 2-1 HT 1-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
18.11.2017 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 1-1 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
22.04.2017 Newport County Newport County 1-0 HT 0-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
29.10.2016 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 1-3 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
28.03.2016 Newport County Newport County 0-2 HT 0-2 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2

Newport County 1-3 Accrington Stanley — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
1-3
AWAY Accrington Stanley
0.29 xG 2.62
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 1
269 Passes 217
64% Pass Accuracy 60%
9 Box Touches 34
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Accrington Stanley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Accrington Stanley got the better of Newport County 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Accrington Stanley made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Newport County had 53% of the ball to Accrington Stanley's 47%, shots finished 8-18, expected goals 0.29 to 2.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newport County had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Newport County and 1.33 for Accrington Stanley.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Accrington Stanley?

Newport County 1-3 Accrington Stanley in the England - 2nd Division on 09/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Accrington Stanley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newport County win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Newport County 38%, draw 26%, Accrington Stanley 37%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Newport County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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