Morecambe 0-1 Crewe Alexandra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 9 Apr 2024

Morecambe
0-1 HT 0-0
Crewe Alexandra
📅09/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Morecambe vs Crewe Alexandra Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.8
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
33%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.95
Over 2.5
44%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.55
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.38
6+ Goals
9%
12.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.55 — our 28% vs market 22.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.42
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
8%
13.15
X/1
13%
6.4
X/2
10%
4.96
X/X
15%
4.78
2/1
9%
31.5
2/2
15%
3.09
2/X
7%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+5.2pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.9pp
33%
Away Win
41%
-8.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.4pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Morecambe v Crewe Alexandra — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morecambe EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +4%
1.46/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.19
+14% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +19%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
250 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 71%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
18.8 Crosses 19.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 0.9

Morecambe vs Crewe Alexandra Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Morecambe
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.15 xG 2.09
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 9
187 Passes 377
66% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
02.03.2024 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 2-3 HT 1-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
29.12.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 1-2 HT 1-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN1
21.09.2021 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 1-3 HT 0-2 Morecambe Morecambe İN1
29.02.2020 Morecambe Morecambe 1-1 HT 0-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
23.11.2019 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 5-0 HT 3-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
05.01.2019 Morecambe Morecambe 2-2 HT 0-1 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2

Morecambe 0-1 Crewe Alexandra — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Morecambe
0-1
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
0.83 xG 1.21
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 9
343 Passes 211
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
17 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Morecambe vs Crewe Alexandra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crewe Alexandra nicked a narrow win over Morecambe 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; Crewe Alexandra found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Morecambe had 58% of the ball to Crewe Alexandra's 42%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.83 to 1.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Morecambe and 2.17 for Crewe Alexandra.

What was the final score of Morecambe vs Crewe Alexandra?

Morecambe 0-1 Crewe Alexandra in the England - 2nd Division on 09/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morecambe vs Crewe Alexandra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Morecambe win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Morecambe 37%, draw 29%, Crewe Alexandra 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Morecambe) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Morecambe) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
9 Apr 2024
21:45 Harrogate Town vs Grimsby Town Analysis →
21:45 Newport County vs Accrington Stanley Analysis →
21:45 Doncaster Rovers vs Walsall Analysis →
21:45 Mansfield Town vs Forest Green Rovers Analysis →
21:45 Colchester vs Stockport County Analysis →
21:45 Wrexham vs Crawley Town Analysis →