Estrela U23 2-3 Benfica U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 9 Apr 2025

📅09/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.5
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
40%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
3%
1/X
10%
X/1
4%
X/2
17%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
20%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
25%
+5.8pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.0pp
40%
Away Win
50%
-9.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.3pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela U23 EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica U23 EU Bookmakers 55%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.49/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.32/1.27
-1% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela U23
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Benfica U23
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 2.60
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
29.01.2025 Benfica U23 Benfica U23 0-0 HT 0-0 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 PORU23
17.12.2024 Benfica U23 Benfica U23 7-0 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 UŞGB
28.09.2024 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 1-0 Benfica U23 Benfica U23 UŞGB
25.04.2024 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 0-4 HT 0-2 Benfica U23 Benfica U23 PORU23
20.02.2024 Benfica U23 Benfica U23 2-2 HT 1-2 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 PORU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela U23
2-3
AWAY Benfica U23
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Estrela U23 vs Benfica U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica U23 edged past Estrela U23 3-2 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 29% / 40% — and on the day Benfica U23 made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Estrela U23 had 46% of the ball to Benfica U23's 54%, shots finished 11-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Benfica U23 led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Estrela U23 and 2.60 for Benfica U23.

What was the final score of Estrela U23 vs Benfica U23?

Estrela U23 2-3 Benfica U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 09/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela U23 vs Benfica U23?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Estrela U23 31%, draw 29%, Benfica U23 40%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica U23), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Benfica U23) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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