UPDF vs Mbarara City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
UPDF v Mbarara City — Team-Based Signals
UPDF vs Mbarara City Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Mbarara City
UGA
UPDF 3-1 Mbarara City — Actual Match Statistics
UPDF beat Mbarara City 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had UPDF as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, UPDF had 65% of the ball to Mbarara City's 35%, shots finished 8-3.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, UPDF had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for UPDF and 0.20 for Mbarara City.
What was the final score of UPDF vs Mbarara City?
UPDF 3-1 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 09/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for UPDF vs Mbarara City?
Before kick-off our model rated a UPDF win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split UPDF 58%, draw 20%, Mbarara City 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UPDF) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.