Stade Ouchy 1-1 Bellinzona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 9 May 2025

📅09/05/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.55
No
51%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.17
2-3 Goals
37%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
2.85
6+ Goals
11%
8.33
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.17 — our 27% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.4pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.4pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.1pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stade Ouchy EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 34%
-9% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
1.42/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.52
-16% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
368 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
20.1 Crosses 16.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stade Ouchy
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Bellinzona
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.60 xG 1.24
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
344 Passes 188
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
15.02.2025 Bellinzona Bellinzona 0-1 HT 0-0 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy İSV2
19.10.2024 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy 1-1 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
24.09.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 2-1 HT 1-0 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy İSV2
27.05.2023 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy 6-0 HT 3-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
05.03.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 0-1 HT 0-0 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy İSV2
05.11.2022 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy 2-1 HT 0-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stade Ouchy
1-1
AWAY Bellinzona
0.13 xG 0.27
62% Ball Possession 38%
3 Total Shots 4
1 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 0
397 Passes 205
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
13 Box Touches 6
12 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Stade Ouchy vs Bellinzona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stade Ouchy and Bellinzona couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Stade Ouchy at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Stade Ouchy had 62% of the ball to Bellinzona's 38%, shots finished 3-4, expected goals 0.13 to 0.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stade Ouchy had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Stade Ouchy and 0.67 for Bellinzona.

What was the final score of Stade Ouchy vs Bellinzona?

Stade Ouchy 1-1 Bellinzona in the Switzerland Challenge League on 09/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stade Ouchy vs Bellinzona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stade Ouchy win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Stade Ouchy 43%, draw 27%, Bellinzona 29%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Stade Ouchy) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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