V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 9 Jun 2024

📅09/06/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.05
Draw
31%
3.64
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.0
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.11
6+ Goals
10%
10.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.0 — our 25% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
45%
-9.8pp
31%
Draw
24%
+6.9pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.1pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 429 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
258 Passes 663
0 Yellow Cards 1
05.06.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-1 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JLK
30.07.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-2 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
23.04.2022 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-1 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
16.10.2021 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
06.03.2021 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-0 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
28.11.2020 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1-1
AWAY Albirex Niigata
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki and Albirex Niigata couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 31% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 52% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 48%, shots finished 18-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Albirex Niigata led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.33 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Albirex Niigata?

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - League Cup on 09/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 35%, draw 31%, Albirex Niigata 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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