Crawley Town 1-2 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 9 Aug 2025

📅09/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.05
6+ Goals
9%
10.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 30% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.11
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.3
X/1
20%
4.24
X/2
8%
9.96
X/X
12%
5.53
2/1
12%
21.75
2/2
10%
7.76
2/X
6%
15.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-3.3pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.5pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 23%
-13% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
1.22/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.49
-14% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
382 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 73%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
13.0 Crosses 14.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crawley Town
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Newport County
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.22 xG 0.96
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
282 Passes 253
69% Pass Accuracy 68%
23 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.04.2024 Newport County Newport County 0-4 HT 0-2 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
09.09.2023 Crawley Town Crawley Town 4-1 HT 1-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
02.01.2023 Newport County Newport County 2-2 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
15.10.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
15.04.2022 Newport County Newport County 1-2 HT 0-2 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
23.11.2021 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crawley Town
1-2
AWAY Newport County
0.96 xG 1.40
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
327 Passes 176
76% Pass Accuracy 66%
22 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Crawley Town vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport County squeezed past Crawley Town 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Crawley Town at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Crawley Town had 61% of the ball to Newport County's 39%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 0.96 to 1.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crawley Town had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Crawley Town and 1.00 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Crawley Town vs Newport County?

Crawley Town 1-2 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crawley Town vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crawley Town win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Crawley Town 53%, draw 24%, Newport County 23%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Crawley Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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