Gent 2-3 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 9 Aug 2025

📅09/08/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
4.13
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
58%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.3
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.38
6+ Goals
11%
12.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
7.87
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
23.05
1/X
8%
16.6
X/1
6%
9.7
X/2
18%
4.1
X/X
11%
5.3
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
31%
2.14
2/X
5%
15.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.05 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
21%
-2.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
58%
Away Win
55%
+3.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.0pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gent EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 60%
-21% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -3%
1.34/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/0.99
-59% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +11%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
308 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 79%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.9
19.1 Crosses 17.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gent
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.85 xG 2.28
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
383 Passes 310
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 30
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.05.2025 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 3-1 HT 1-1 Gent Gent BEL
05.04.2025 Gent Gent 0-3 HT 0-3 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
26.12.2024 Gent Gent 1-3 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
04.12.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 3-2 HT 1-1 Gent Gent BEK
19.10.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 0-0 HT 0-0 Gent Gent BEL
10.03.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-1 HT 0-0 Gent Gent BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gent
2-3
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
1.36 xG 3.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
20 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 10
292 Passes 317
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 36
25 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Gent vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise squeezed past Gent 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Gent had 48% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 52%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 1.36 to 3.50 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Union Saint-Gilloise's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gent and 2.17 for Union Saint-Gilloise.

What was the final score of Gent vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Gent 2-3 Union Saint-Gilloise in the Belgium - Pro League on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gent vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated an Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Gent 18%, draw 24%, Union Saint-Gilloise 58%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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