Gent 1-3 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.83
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.04
6+ Goals
9%
9.93
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 27% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.4
1/2
6%
24.7
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
8%
6.61
X/2
13%
5.11
X/X
12%
5.07
2/1
9%
30.5
2/2
21%
3.06
2/X
7%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.1pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gent EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 46%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
1.50/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.34
+0% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 77%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
17.4 Crosses 16.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gent
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.46 xG 1.58
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
407 Passes 302
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.12.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 3-2 HT 1-1 Gent Gent BEK
19.10.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 0-0 HT 0-0 Gent Gent BEL
10.03.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-1 HT 0-0 Gent Gent BEL
26.11.2023 Gent Gent 1-1 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
08.04.2023 Gent Gent 1-1 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
12.01.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 4-0 HT 3-0 Gent Gent BEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gent
1-3
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.58 xG 1.84
55% Ball Possession 45%
5 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 4
375 Passes 313
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 35
19 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gent vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise beat Gent 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (33% / 27% / 40%) promised a tight game; Union Saint-Gilloise found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Gent had 55% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 45%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.58 to 1.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gent and 1.67 for Union Saint-Gilloise.

What was the final score of Gent vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Gent 1-3 Union Saint-Gilloise in the Belgium - Pro League on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gent vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated an Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Gent 33%, draw 27%, Union Saint-Gilloise 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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