BFA 1-0 Hegelmann II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 9 Aug 2025

📅09/08/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
16%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
49%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
3%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
62%
-2.5pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.5pp
16%
Away Win
17%
-1.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.6pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFA EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Hegelmann II EU Bookmakers 21%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
2.04/0.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/2.13
+11% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / -20%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
373 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFA
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Hegelmann II
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.04.2025 Hegelmann II 1-2 BFA BFA LIT1
28.09.2024 BFA BFA 3-2 Hegelmann II LIT1
13.05.2024 Hegelmann II 2-0 HT 1-0 BFA BFA LIT1
POST-MATCH BFA vs Hegelmann II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFA squeezed past Hegelmann II 1-0. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had BFA as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, BFA had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for BFA and 1.67 for Hegelmann II.

What was the final score of BFA vs Hegelmann II?

BFA 1-0 Hegelmann II in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFA vs Hegelmann II?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFA win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split BFA 60%, draw 24%, Hegelmann II 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFA) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BFA) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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