Lokomotiv Moscow 4-2 Spartak Moskova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 9 Aug 2025

📅09/08/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.17
Draw
20%
3.35
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.95
Over 2.5
54%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
28%
+6.8pp
20%
Draw
26%
-6.5pp
45%
Away Win
45%
-0.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.0pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 49%
+17% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -16%
1.12/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.20
+30% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +3%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.6
12.1 Crosses 21.6
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Spartak Moskova
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.37 xG 2.02
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
257 Passes 380
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
23.11.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 5-2 HT 3-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
28.09.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-1 HT 2-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
28.04.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 3-2 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
05.11.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
27.02.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 4-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
22.02.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-1 HT 0-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
4-2
AWAY Spartak Moskova
1.46 xG 1.75
31% Ball Possession 69%
12 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 6
158 Passes 454
68% Pass Accuracy 89%
17 Box Touches 21
7 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs Spartak Moskova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow saw off Spartak Moskova 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Spartak Moskova at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 31% of the ball to Spartak Moskova's 69%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.46 to 1.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spartak Moskova led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 2.50 for Spartak Moskova.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs Spartak Moskova?

Lokomotiv Moscow 4-2 Spartak Moskova in the Russia - Premier League on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs Spartak Moskova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 35%, draw 20%, Spartak Moskova 45%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Spartak Moskova) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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