Spartak Moskova 5-2 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.69
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.35
6+ Goals
13%
12.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.9
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
10%
4.8
X/2
14%
6.91
X/X
14%
4.96
2/1 EV+ ✗
15%
24.7
2/2
11%
4.84
2/X
7%
13.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.7 — our 15% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+1.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.8pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +12%
1.44/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.31
+25% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% / +2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 78%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
16.8 Crosses 14.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Moskova
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.38 xG 1.08
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
390 Passes 281
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.09.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-1 HT 2-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
28.04.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 3-2 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
05.11.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
27.02.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 4-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
22.02.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-1 HT 0-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
12.11.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-2 HT 0-2 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Moskova
5-2
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
3.96 xG 1.63
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 10
326 Passes 215
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
31 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Spartak Moskova vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Moskova cruised past Lokomotiv Moscow 5-2. Half-time: 3-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Spartak Moskova as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Spartak Moskova had 56% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 44%, shots finished 19-15, expected goals 3.96 to 1.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spartak Moskova had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Spartak Moskova and 1.50 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of Spartak Moskova vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Spartak Moskova 5-2 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Moskova vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Spartak Moskova 41%, draw 28%, Lokomotiv Moscow 31%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Moskova), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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