FK Orenburg 0-1 Zenit St. Petersburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 23 Nov 2024

FK Orenburg
0-1 HT 0-0
Zenit St. Petersburg
📅23/11/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2024/2025

FK Orenburg vs Zenit St. Petersburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.4
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
56%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
4.59
2-3 Goals
37%
1.92
4-5 Goals
25%
2.93
6+ Goals
13%
8.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.59 — our 25% vs market 17.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
11.05
1/2
9%
21.7
1/X
7%
18.8
X/1
8%
14.55
X/2
18%
3.7
X/X
9%
6.8
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
29%
1.72
2/X
7%
18.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
15%
+6.2pp
23%
Draw
19%
+3.4pp
56%
Away Win
66%
-9.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.4pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FK Orenburg v Zenit St. Petersburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg EU Bookmakers 70%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.26/2.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/0.76
+83% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +0%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
245 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 447 · 82%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
14.7 Crosses 20.0
3.4 Yellow Cards 1.2

FK Orenburg vs Zenit St. Petersburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.83 xG 2.29
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 8
270 Passes 504
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 39
12 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.10.2024 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
21.04.2024 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
30.09.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 3-1 HT 3-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
20.05.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-2 HT 1-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
11.09.2022 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 8-0 HT 5-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
15.07.2020 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 4-1 HT 1-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS

FK Orenburg 0-1 Zenit St. Petersburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
0-1
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
0.28 xG 1.93
33% Ball Possession 67%
6 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
193 Passes 494
70% Pass Accuracy 87%
10 Box Touches 41
16 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Zenit St. Petersburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zenit St. Petersburg nicked a narrow win over FK Orenburg 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Zenit St. Petersburg as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 33% of the ball to Zenit St. Petersburg's 67%, shots finished 6-20, expected goals 0.28 to 1.93 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Zenit St. Petersburg's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zenit St. Petersburg led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FK Orenburg and 2.83 for Zenit St. Petersburg.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

FK Orenburg 0-1 Zenit St. Petersburg in the Russia - Premier League on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Zenit St. Petersburg win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 21%, draw 23%, Zenit St. Petersburg 56%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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