Fransa 2-1 İzlanda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 9 Sep 2025

Fransa
2-1 HT 1-1
İzlanda
📅09/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
World Cup Qualifiers – 2026

Fransa vs İzlanda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
80%
1.11
Draw
11%
8.11
Away
9%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
3.68
Over 2.5
65%
1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.19
No
53%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
8.57
2-3 Goals
40%
2.38
4-5 Goals
30%
2.27
6+ Goals
13%
3.57
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
46%
1.12
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
3%
34.5
X/1 EV+ ✓
28%
4.02
X/2
3%
34.5
X/X
4%
15.2
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
3%
34.5
2/X
4%
34.5
Value flag · X/1 at 4.02 — our 28% vs market 18.0%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
80%
Home Win
85%
-4.5pp
11%
Draw
9%
+1.8pp
9%
Away Win
6%
+2.6pp
35%
Under 2.5
24%
+11.5pp
65%
Over 2.5
76%
-11.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.2pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fransa v İzlanda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fransa EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY İzlanda EU Bookmakers 9%
-7% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
2.02/0.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.31
+16% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -16%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
431 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 78%
36.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.4
24.4 Crosses 9.4
0.7 Yellow Cards 3.1

Fransa vs İzlanda Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fransa
3W-1D-0L
AWAY İzlanda
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.25 xG 0.55
72% Ball Possession 28%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
630 Passes 196
88% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 11
24 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
11.10.2019 İzlanda İzlanda 0-1 HT 0-0 Fransa Fransa AVŞE
25.03.2019 Fransa Fransa 4-0 HT 1-0 İzlanda İzlanda AVŞE
11.10.2018 Fransa Fransa 2-2 HT 0-1 İzlanda İzlanda HAZ
27.05.2012 Fransa Fransa 3-2 HT 0-2 İzlanda İzlanda HAZ

Fransa 2-1 İzlanda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fransa
2-1
AWAY İzlanda
2.99 xG 0.68
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
560 Passes 300
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
50 Box Touches 8
17 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fransa vs İzlanda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fransa nicked a narrow win over İzlanda 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fransa as the likeliest winner at 80%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (65%) came in.

On the day, Fransa had 63% of the ball to İzlanda's 37%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 2.99 to 0.68 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fransa's control.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Fransa had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Fransa and 1.00 for İzlanda.

What was the final score of Fransa vs İzlanda?

Fransa 2-1 İzlanda in the World Cup Qualifiers on 09/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fransa vs İzlanda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fransa win the most likely single outcome at about 80%, with the full match-result split Fransa 80%, draw 11%, İzlanda 9%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fransa), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fransa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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