Bristol Rovers 1-1 Lincoln City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 9 Nov 2024

Bristol Rovers
1-1 HT 1-0
Lincoln City
📅09/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Bristol Rovers vs Lincoln City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
49%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.14
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.73
6+ Goals
11%
15.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.73 — our 26% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
5.04
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
25.5
1/X
8%
14.05
X/1
9%
6.75
X/2
10%
4.53
X/X
9%
4.61
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
30%
2.88
2/X
9%
13.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 52% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
29%
-4.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
49%
Away Win
45%
+4.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.9pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bristol Rovers v Lincoln City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lincoln City EU Bookmakers 49%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +12%
1.22/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.23
-2% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -1%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
246 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 74%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
17.9 Crosses 17.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8

Bristol Rovers vs Lincoln City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bristol Rovers
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Lincoln City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.28 xG 1.74
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
311 Passes 246
72% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.03.2024 Lincoln City Lincoln City 5-0 HT 3-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
02.09.2023 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-1 HT 0-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
11.02.2023 Lincoln City Lincoln City 1-0 HT 1-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
17.09.2022 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3-6 HT 1-3 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
17.04.2021 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 0-1 HT 0-1 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
10.10.2020 Lincoln City Lincoln City 1-2 HT 0-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1

Bristol Rovers 1-1 Lincoln City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bristol Rovers
1-1
AWAY Lincoln City
0.33 xG 0.80
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
277 Passes 202
69% Pass Accuracy 61%
15 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bristol Rovers vs Lincoln City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bristol Rovers and Lincoln City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Lincoln City at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Bristol Rovers had 54% of the ball to Lincoln City's 46%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.33 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lincoln City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bristol Rovers and 2.50 for Lincoln City.

What was the final score of Bristol Rovers vs Lincoln City?

Bristol Rovers 1-1 Lincoln City in the England - 1st Division on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bristol Rovers vs Lincoln City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lincoln City win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Bristol Rovers 24%, draw 27%, Lincoln City 49%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lincoln City), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lincoln City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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