Basel 0-1 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 9 Nov 2025

Basel
0-1 HT 0-0
Lugano
📅09/11/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.76
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.49
No
42%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.24
2-3 Goals
37%
1.99
4-5 Goals
28%
2.65
6+ Goals
13%
6.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.3
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
20%
4.81
X/2
10%
8.99
X/X
10%
6.25
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.0
2/2
8%
6.02
2/X
6%
14.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.0 — our 11% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
52%
+0.3pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.5pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
63%
-4.8pp
42%
BTTS No
37%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Basel EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -30%
2.00/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.56
+8% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 77%
31.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
20.9 Crosses 15.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Basel
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Lugano
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.87 xG 1.87
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
285 Passes 395
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2025 Lugano Lugano 3-1 HT 2-0 Basel Basel İSV
10.05.2025 Lugano Lugano 2-5 HT 1-1 Basel Basel İSV
06.04.2025 Basel Basel 2-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
19.01.2025 Lugano Lugano 2-2 HT 1-1 Basel Basel İSV
27.07.2024 Basel Basel 1-2 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
02.04.2024 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 1-0 Basel Basel İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Basel
0-1
AWAY Lugano
2.30 xG 1.87
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 8
378 Passes 278
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 23
30 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Basel vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano edged past Basel 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Basel at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Basel had 57% of the ball to Lugano's 43%, shots finished 17-19, expected goals 2.30 to 1.87 — on chances, Basel could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Basel and 1.83 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Basel vs Lugano?

Basel 0-1 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Basel vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Basel 53%, draw 23%, Lugano 24%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Basel) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSV More Switzerland - Super League
9 Nov 2025
18:30 Lausanne Sports vs Sion Analysis →
18:30 St. Gallen vs Young Boys Analysis →