Basel 2-0 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 6 Apr 2025

Basel
2-0 HT 0-0
Lugano
📅06/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
35%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.93
4-5 Goals
25%
3.05
6+ Goals
13%
9.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.82
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
14%
5.14
X/2
8%
7.37
X/X
12%
5.38
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
22.45
2/2
21%
4.93
2/X
7%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.45 — our 7% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-5.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
35%
Away Win
29%
+6.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.9pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Basel EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +12%
1.75/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.39
-18% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
366 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
21.2 Crosses 15.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Basel
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lugano
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.05 xG 1.28
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
321 Passes 373
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
19.01.2025 Lugano Lugano 2-2 HT 1-1 Basel Basel İSV
27.07.2024 Basel Basel 1-2 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
02.04.2024 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 1-0 Basel Basel İSV
28.02.2024 Basel Basel 2-2 HT 0-2 Lugano Lugano İSVK
03.02.2024 Basel Basel 0-1 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
06.12.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-3 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Basel
2-0
AWAY Lugano
2.21 xG 1.08
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 1
273 Passes 413
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Basel vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Basel saw off Lugano 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 35%) promised a tight game; Basel found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Basel had 41% of the ball to Lugano's 59%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 2.21 to 1.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Basel and 1.67 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Basel vs Lugano?

Basel 2-0 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Basel vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Basel 40%, draw 25%, Lugano 35%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Basel) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Basel) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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