Lugano 3-1 Basel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 10 Aug 2025

Lugano
3-1 HT 2-0
Basel
📅10/08/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.08
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
49%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.23
Over 2.5
63%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.53
No
40%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.67
2-3 Goals
37%
1.94
4-5 Goals
29%
2.91
6+ Goals
15%
8.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.88
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
21.5
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
7%
7.41
X/2
10%
5.05
X/X
6%
5.61
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
29%
2.7
2/X
9%
12.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.5 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
29%
-0.3pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.4pp
49%
Away Win
46%
+2.8pp
37%
Under 2.5
41%
-3.5pp
63%
Over 2.5
59%
+3.5pp
60%
BTTS Yes
61%
-0.8pp
40%
BTTS No
39%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Basel EU Bookmakers 50%
+5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +18%
1.42/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.30
-2% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +28%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
306 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 81%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
17.1 Crosses 16.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Basel
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.59 xG 1.87
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
394 Passes 266
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.05.2025 Lugano Lugano 2-5 HT 1-1 Basel Basel İSV
06.04.2025 Basel Basel 2-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
19.01.2025 Lugano Lugano 2-2 HT 1-1 Basel Basel İSV
27.07.2024 Basel Basel 1-2 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
02.04.2024 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 1-0 Basel Basel İSV
28.02.2024 Basel Basel 2-2 HT 0-2 Lugano Lugano İSVK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
3-1
AWAY Basel
3.29 xG 1.88
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
402 Passes 382
89% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Basel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano beat Basel 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Basel at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Lugano had 51% of the ball to Basel's 49%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 3.29 to 1.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lugano and 2.00 for Basel.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Basel?

Lugano 3-1 Basel in the Switzerland - Super League on 10/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Basel?

Before kick-off our model rated an Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Lugano 28%, draw 22%, Basel 49%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Basel) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Basel) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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