Guadalajara 4-2 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 9 Nov 2025

📅09/11/2025 · 🕒02:07 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
24%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.92
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
9.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.7pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.3pp
24%
Away Win
26%
-2.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.9pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 30%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.50/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.35
-4% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
338 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 79%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
20.3 Crosses 15.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Monterrey
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.08 xG 1.25
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
330 Passes 343
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2025 Monterrey Monterrey 3-1 HT 2-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
29.09.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-1 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
31.03.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 0-2 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
04.09.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-2 HT 0-2 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
08.01.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
24.08.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
4-2
AWAY Monterrey
2.40 xG 0.47
44% Ball Possession 56%
21 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 0
349 Passes 451
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara beat Monterrey 4-2. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Guadalajara had 44% of the ball to Monterrey's 56%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 2.40 to 0.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Guadalajara and 1.00 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Monterrey?

Guadalajara 4-2 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 46%, draw 30%, Monterrey 24%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ BTTS Yes
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