Leon 1-2 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 9 Nov 2025

Leon
1-2 HT 1-2
Puebla
📅09/11/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2025/2026

Leon vs Puebla Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
23%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.18
Over 2.5
57%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.6
No
41%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.2
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
2.85
6+ Goals
14%
8.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
51%
+1.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.3pp
23%
Away Win
25%
-2.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
42%
+1.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
58%
-1.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.7pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leon v Puebla — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -15%
1.37/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.49
-1% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
20.1 Crosses 17.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Leon vs Puebla Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Puebla
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.95 xG 1.19
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
358 Passes 251
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
13.04.2025 Leon Leon 1-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
17.07.2024 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-1 Leon Leon MEK
17.03.2024 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
04.11.2023 Puebla Puebla 5-4 HT 1-3 Leon Leon MEK
15.02.2023 Leon Leon 2-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
16.07.2022 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK

Leon 1-2 Puebla — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
1-2
AWAY Puebla
1.10 xG 0.69
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
438 Passes 324
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Leon vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puebla nicked a narrow win over Leon 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Leon at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Leon had 57% of the ball to Puebla's 43%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.10 to 0.69 — on chances, Leon could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Leon and 1.50 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Leon vs Puebla?

Leon 1-2 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Leon 53%, draw 24%, Puebla 23%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Leon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
9 Nov 2025
02:00 Tigres UANL vs Atletico San Luis Analysis →
02:07 Guadalajara vs Monterrey Analysis →
04:00 Toluca vs Club America Analysis →
06:05 Cruz Azul vs Pumas UNAM Analysis →