Fenerbahçe 4-2 Kayserispor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 9 Nov 2025

📅09/11/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
79%
1.25
Draw
12%
5.71
Away
9%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.89
Over 2.5
61%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.62
2-3 Goals
36%
2.2
4-5 Goals
29%
2.54
6+ Goals
16%
5.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
44%
1.4
1/2
2%
36.0
1/X
6%
25.0
X/1
24%
4.08
X/2
4%
25.5
X/X
3%
10.7
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.45
2/2
3%
20.75
2/X
3%
29.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 11% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
79%
Home Win
76%
+3.3pp
12%
Draw
15%
-2.9pp
9%
Away Win
10%
-0.6pp
39%
Under 2.5
31%
+7.8pp
61%
Over 2.5
69%
-7.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.6pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Kayserispor EU Bookmakers 12%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
2.40/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/2.17
+11% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -8%
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
429 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 74%
34.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
23.9 Crosses 15.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Kayserispor
3.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.44 xG 1.31
57% Ball Possession 43%
20 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
360 Passes 255
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
32 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2025 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 3-3 HT 1-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
23.11.2024 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-6 HT 1-3 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
12.05.2024 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 3-0 HT 2-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
20.12.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 3-4 HT 1-2 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
06.04.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 4-1 HT 2-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TÜK
04.03.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 1-2 HT 0-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
4-2
AWAY Kayserispor
2.24 xG 1.26
62% Ball Possession 38%
28 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
485 Passes 263
91% Pass Accuracy 80%
32 Box Touches 7
24 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Kayserispor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe got the better of Kayserispor 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 79%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 62% of the ball to Kayserispor's 38%, shots finished 28-5, expected goals 2.24 to 1.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.67 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.67 for Kayserispor.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Kayserispor?

Fenerbahçe 4-2 Kayserispor in the Turkey - Super League on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Kayserispor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 79%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 79%, draw 12%, Kayserispor 9%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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