Union Berlin vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Union Berlin v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals
Union Berlin vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-1
HT 2-0
Mainz 05
AL1
2-1
HT 1-0
Mainz 05
AL1
0-0
HT 0-0
Union Berlin
AL1
Union Berlin 2-2 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics
Union Berlin and Mainz 05 couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Union Berlin at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Union Berlin had 57% of the ball to Mainz 05's 43%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 3.35 to 1.01.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Union Berlin and 0.83 for Mainz 05.
What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Mainz 05?
Union Berlin 2-2 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 10/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Mainz 05?
Before kick-off our model rated a Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 54%, draw 22%, Mainz 05 25%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Union Berlin) went the other way.