Bayer Leverkusen 1-4 Stuttgart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 10 Jan 2026

📅10/01/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.5
No
47%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.48
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
27%
2.84
6+ Goals
11%
7.99
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.98
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.45
X/1
13%
5.39
X/2
13%
7.0
X/X
12%
5.51
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.7
2/2
13%
4.47
2/X
6%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
62%
-9.7pp
47%
BTTS No
38%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +14%
1.95/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.41
+44% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
394 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
14.8 Crosses 16.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Stuttgart
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.90 xG 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
393 Passes 410
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 23
23 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.03.2025 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-4 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
01.11.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
17.08.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart ALSK
27.04.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
06.02.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 HT 0-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AFK
10.12.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 1-1 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
1-4
AWAY Stuttgart
1.96 xG 2.61
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
479 Passes 334
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart ran out comfortable winners over Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-4. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Bayer Leverkusen at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 57% of the ball to Stuttgart's 43%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.96 to 2.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.67 for Stuttgart.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart?

Bayer Leverkusen 1-4 Stuttgart in the Germany - Bundesliga on 10/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 43%, draw 25%, Stuttgart 32%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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