AZ Alkmaar vs Volendam Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
AZ Alkmaar v Volendam — Team-Based Signals
AZ Alkmaar vs Volendam Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 1-0
Volendam
HOL
1-1
HT 0-0
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
2-1
HT 2-0
Volendam
HOL
0-2
HT 0-1
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Volendam — Actual Match Statistics
AZ Alkmaar squeezed past Volendam 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 79%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (70%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 49% of the ball to Volendam's 51%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 2.30 to 0.54 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold AZ Alkmaar's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.67 for Volendam.
What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Volendam?
AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Volendam in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 10/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Volendam?
Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 79%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 79%, draw 13%, Volendam 8%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.