Northampton Town 1-1 Bolton Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 10 Feb 2024

Northampton Town
1-1 HT 1-0
Bolton Wanderers
📅10/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Northampton Town vs Bolton Wanderers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.75
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
44%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.07
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
3.73
6+ Goals
9%
16.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 33% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.59
1/2
8%
24.6
1/X
6%
15.15
X/1 EV+ ✗
15%
8.32
X/2
12%
3.97
X/X
15%
4.7
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
23%
2.36
2/X
6%
14.5
Value flag · X/1 at 8.32 — our 15% vs market 8.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
23%
+6.1pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.7pp
43%
Away Win
52%
-8.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.3pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Northampton Town v Bolton Wanderers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Bolton Wanderers EU Bookmakers 56%
+4% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
0.99/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/0.74
-7% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +75%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
203 · 63% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 73%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
19.2 Crosses 16.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Northampton Town vs Bolton Wanderers Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Northampton Town
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Bolton Wanderers
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.46 xG 1.84
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
303 Passes 461
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 2-1 HT 2-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
18.03.2017 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 2-1 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
26.11.2016 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
26.08.2008 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-2 HT 0-2 Northampton Town Northampton Town İNLK

Northampton Town 1-1 Bolton Wanderers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Northampton Town
1-1
AWAY Bolton Wanderers
0.72 xG 0.52
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
237 Passes 277
71% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Northampton Town vs Bolton Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Northampton Town and Bolton Wanderers couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Bolton Wanderers at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Northampton Town had 46% of the ball to Bolton Wanderers's 54%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 0.72 to 0.52.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Bolton Wanderers led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Northampton Town and 1.50 for Bolton Wanderers.

What was the final score of Northampton Town vs Bolton Wanderers?

Northampton Town 1-1 Bolton Wanderers in the England - 1st Division on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Northampton Town vs Bolton Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bolton Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Northampton Town 29%, draw 27%, Bolton Wanderers 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bolton Wanderers), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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