Harrogate Town 1-0 Colchester — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.91
Over 2.5
56%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.44
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.39
6+ Goals
13%
12.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.39 — our 25% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.02
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
15%
4.79
X/2
10%
6.32
X/X
16%
4.75
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
13%
4.44
2/X
6%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
30%
Away Win
30%
-0.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-4.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+4.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.9pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Colchester EU Bookmakers 34%
-15% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +14%
1.27/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.49
-6% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
279 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 71%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
18.8 Crosses 16.6
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Harrogate Town
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Colchester
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.87 xG 1.27
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
290 Passes 217
68% Pass Accuracy 60%
20 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.10.2023 Colchester Colchester 1-2 HT 0-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
07.01.2023 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 1-3 HT 0-2 Colchester Colchester İN2
08.10.2022 Colchester Colchester 2-1 HT 2-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
02.04.2022 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 1-2 HT 1-2 Colchester Colchester İN2
16.10.2021 Colchester Colchester 1-0 HT 0-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
09.03.2021 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 3-0 HT 2-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Harrogate Town
1-0
AWAY Colchester
2.02 xG 2.32
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 26
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 9
333 Passes 320
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 36
21 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Harrogate Town vs Colchester
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Harrogate Town squeezed past Colchester 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Harrogate Town as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Harrogate Town had 51% of the ball to Colchester's 49%, shots finished 10-26, expected goals 2.02 to 2.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Colchester led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Harrogate Town and 1.50 for Colchester.

What was the final score of Harrogate Town vs Colchester?

Harrogate Town 1-0 Colchester in the England - 2nd Division on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Harrogate Town vs Colchester?

Before kick-off our model rated a Harrogate Town win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Harrogate Town 43%, draw 27%, Colchester 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Harrogate Town) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Harrogate Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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