Verl 1-3 MSV Duisburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
34%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.47
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.36
6+ Goals
10%
12.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.47 — our 30% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.62
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
14%
4.4
X/2
15%
7.31
X/X
10%
4.84
2/1
9%
23.75
2/2
14%
5.32
2/X
5%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-5.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+7.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-9.0pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Verl EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY MSV Duisburg EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -14%
2.03/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.63
+22% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
392 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
Crosses 15.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Verl
2W-3D-1L
AWAY MSV Duisburg
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
15.09.2023 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 2-3 HT 2-1 Verl Verl AL3
18.03.2023 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 3-3 HT 2-2 Verl Verl AL3
18.09.2022 Verl Verl 1-0 HT 0-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
14.05.2022 Verl Verl 1-1 HT 0-1 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
11.12.2021 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 2-2 HT 1-1 Verl Verl AL3
03.04.2021 Verl Verl 1-2 HT 0-1 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Verl
1-3
AWAY MSV Duisburg
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Verl vs MSV Duisburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MSV Duisburg beat Verl 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Verl at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Verl had 56% of the ball to MSV Duisburg's 44%, shots finished 16-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Verl had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Verl and 1.67 for MSV Duisburg.

What was the final score of Verl vs MSV Duisburg?

Verl 1-3 MSV Duisburg in the Germany - 3rd Division on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Verl vs MSV Duisburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Verl win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Verl 42%, draw 24%, MSV Duisburg 34%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Verl) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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