10/03/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-0
2nd Score
1-0
Poggibonsi vs Grosseto Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
Over
40%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2-3
41%
4-5
17%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
8%
X/X
19%
2/1
10%
2/2
23%
2/X
5%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 60% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
33%
Home Win
29%
31%
Draw
30%
36%
Away Win
41%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Poggibonsi v Grosseto — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Poggibonsi
The Market 32%
Head to Head
AWAY
Grosseto
The Market 45%
-2% /
-2%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+1% /
+1%
1.00/1.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.00/1.00
-20%
/
+9%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-4%
/
+22%
52%
Ball Possession
48%
13
Total Shots
8
5
Shots on Target
3
6
Corners
5
334 · 76%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
275 · 72%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
Poggibonsi vs Grosseto Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Poggibonsi
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Grosseto
0.00
Avg Goals (FT)
1.00
43%
Ball Possession
57%
9
Total Shots
9
1
Shots on Target
4
8
Corners
6
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Poggibonsi vs Grosseto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Grosseto edged past Poggibonsi 2-1 away from home.
We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 31% / 36% — and on the day Grosseto made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Poggibonsi vs Grosseto?
Poggibonsi 1-2 Grosseto in the Italy - Serie D on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Poggibonsi vs Grosseto?
Before kick-off our model rated an Grosseto win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Poggibonsi 33%, draw 31%, Grosseto 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Grosseto) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Grosseto)
✗ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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İTD
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10 Mar 2024