Palmeiras 1-0 Cerro Porteno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 10 Apr 2025

📅10/04/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.3
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
22%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.29
No
56%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.33
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.31
6+ Goals
9%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 27% vs market 23.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.54
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
22.9
X/1
11%
3.61
X/2
9%
19.65
X/X
9%
6.6
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
7%
18.95
2/X
7%
27.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
72%
-16.1pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.8pp
22%
Away Win
9%
+12.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
40%
+4.7pp
56%
BTTS No
60%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Porteno EU Bookmakers 12%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -4%
2.18/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.56
+33% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +29%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
413 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 74%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
23.4 Crosses 11.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Cerro Porteno
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.45 xG 0.88
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
282 Passes 322
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.05.2023 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 0-3 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras LKU
21.04.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno LKU
07.07.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 5-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno LKU
30.06.2022 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 0-3 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras LKU
31.08.2018 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno LKU
10.08.2018 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 0-2 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
1-0
AWAY Cerro Porteno
3.04 xG 0.17
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
393 Passes 268
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 6
20 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras squeezed past Cerro Porteno 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Palmeiras had 57% of the ball to Cerro Porteno's 43%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 3.04 to 0.17 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Palmeiras's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Palmeiras and 0.33 for Cerro Porteno.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno?

Palmeiras 1-0 Cerro Porteno in the Copa Libertadores on 10/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 56%, draw 22%, Cerro Porteno 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ BTTS No
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