Emmen 2-1 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 10 May 2024

📅10/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.51
Over 2.5
54%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.43
No
47%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.99
4-5 Goals
24%
2.68
6+ Goals
12%
6.61
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.57
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
31.0
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
17%
4.91
X/2
11%
7.69
X/X
9%
5.81
2/1
8%
21.2
2/2
13%
4.8
2/X
10%
12.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 31.0 — our 7% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.3pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+10.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
64%
-10.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
66%
-12.5pp
47%
BTTS No
34%
+12.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Emmen EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -9%
1.52/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.41
+9% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
377 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
21.0 Crosses 19.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Emmen
1W-2D-3L
AWAY De Graafschap
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.28 xG 1.39
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
348 Passes 292
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.10.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 1-0 Emmen Emmen HOK
25.08.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-1 HT 0-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
01.04.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-1 HT 1-1 Emmen Emmen HOL2
27.08.2021 Emmen Emmen 0-2 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
23.04.2019 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-0 HT 1-0 Emmen Emmen HOL
31.08.2018 Emmen Emmen 1-1 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Emmen
2-1
AWAY De Graafschap
2.13 xG 1.13
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
170 Passes 445
63% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Emmen vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Emmen edged past De Graafschap 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Emmen as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Emmen had 34% of the ball to De Graafschap's 66%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 2.13 to 1.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Emmen and 1.17 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of Emmen vs De Graafschap?

Emmen 2-1 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Emmen vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated a Emmen win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Emmen 43%, draw 25%, De Graafschap 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Emmen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Emmen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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