MVV Maastricht 2-0 VVV-Venlo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 10 May 2024

MVV Maastricht
2-0 HT 2-0
VVV-Venlo
📅10/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

MVV Maastricht vs VVV-Venlo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
2.59
Over Pick
51%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.46
No
49%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1
27%
5.44
2-3
37%
2.0
4-5
25%
2.67
6+
11%
6.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.21
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
18%
4.47
X/2
13%
9.13
X/X
11%
6.13
2/1 ✗
8%
20.15
2/2
9%
5.93
2/X
8%
13.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.15 — our 8% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 51% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-7.3pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.7pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
35%
+14.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
65%
-14.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
64%
-13.8pp
49%
BTTS No
36%
+13.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MVV Maastricht v VVV-Venlo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 27%
+6% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +21%
1.83/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.63
+15% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +34%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
382 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 74%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
15.7 Crosses 16.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5

MVV Maastricht vs VVV-Venlo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
1W-0D-5L
AWAY VVV-Venlo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.39 xG 1.97
52% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
351 Passes 334
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
13.08.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-3 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
03.03.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-1 HT 0-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
11.12.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-1 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
04.02.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-5 HT 0-4 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
09.10.2021 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-0 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
22.01.2017 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-1 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2

MVV Maastricht 2-0 VVV-Venlo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
2-0
AWAY VVV-Venlo
0.84 xG 1.64
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
270 Passes 466
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs VVV-Venlo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht saw off VVV-Venlo 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had MVV Maastricht as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 39% of the ball to VVV-Venlo's 61%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 0.84 to 1.64 — the balance of chances actually favoured VVV-Venlo.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, VVV-Venlo led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for MVV Maastricht and 2.17 for VVV-Venlo.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs VVV-Venlo?

MVV Maastricht 2-0 VVV-Venlo in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs VVV-Venlo?

Before kick-off our model rated a MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 46%, draw 26%, VVV-Venlo 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MVV Maastricht) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (MVV Maastricht) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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