Union Berlin 0-3 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 10 May 2025

📅10/05/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.25
6+ Goals
11%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 30% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.76
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
15%
4.91
X/2
10%
7.58
X/X
14%
4.95
2/1
6%
23.75
2/2
14%
5.42
2/X
6%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-3.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.6pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 31%
+11% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.42/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.55
-4% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +24%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 75%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
21.9 Crosses 15.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Heidenheim
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.75 xG 1.08
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
360 Passes 322
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.01.2025 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
24.02.2024 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-2 HT 2-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
30.09.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
19.10.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-0 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AFK
15.03.2019 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-1 HT 0-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL2
07.10.2018 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-1 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
0-3
AWAY Heidenheim
0.45 xG 1.12
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 2
375 Passes 393
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidenheim ran out comfortable winners over Union Berlin 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Union Berlin at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Union Berlin had 49% of the ball to Heidenheim's 51%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.45 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heidenheim led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Union Berlin and 1.33 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Heidenheim?

Union Berlin 0-3 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 43%, draw 27%, Heidenheim 30%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Union Berlin), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Union Berlin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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