Turan Tovuz 1-2 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 10 May 2025

📅10/05/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
38%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.62
Over 2.5
48%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.95
No
45%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
44%
-11.4pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.0pp
38%
Away Win
28%
+9.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
58%
-5.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
42%
+5.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+8.1pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.66/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.41
+38% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -22%
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
291 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Turan Tovuz
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
10.03.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-1 HT 0-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
21.12.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-1 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
03.08.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-0 HT 0-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
28.04.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-0 HT 2-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
24.02.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-1 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
10.12.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-2 HT 1-1 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
POST-MATCH Turan Tovuz vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK edged past Turan Tovuz 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (32% / 30% / 38%) promised a tight game; Neftçi PFK found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Turan Tovuz and 1.50 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Turan Tovuz vs Neftçi PFK?

Turan Tovuz 1-2 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Turan Tovuz vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Turan Tovuz 32%, draw 30%, Neftçi PFK 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
10 May 2025
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