Casa Pia 2-1 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 10 May 2025

📅10/05/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.09
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
48%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.9
Over 2.5
42%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.21
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
13.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 32% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
11%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
17%
+8.6pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.7pp
48%
Away Win
60%
-12.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
49%
+8.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
51%
-8.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.2pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 64%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +22%
0.89/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/1.13
-34% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +11%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
251 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 82%
11.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
14.7 Crosses 19.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.15 xG 1.48
43% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
321 Passes 489
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.12.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-2 HT 1-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
05.05.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 4-3 HT 1-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
30.12.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-3 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
01.11.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia PORLC
21.04.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
03.12.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
2-1
AWAY Sporting Braga
0.85 xG 1.95
41% Ball Possession 59%
5 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
261 Passes 409
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
8 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 33
POST-MATCH Casa Pia vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia nicked a narrow win over Sporting Braga 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Braga at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Casa Pia had 41% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 59%, shots finished 5-21, expected goals 0.85 to 1.95 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sporting Braga.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Casa Pia and 1.83 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Sporting Braga?

Casa Pia 2-1 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Premier League on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 25%, draw 27%, Sporting Braga 48%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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