FK Orenburg 1-1 Khimki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 10 May 2025

FK Orenburg
1-1 HT 0-0
Khimki
📅10/05/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2024/2025

FK Orenburg vs Khimki Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
23%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.46
No
38%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.53
2-3 Goals
40%
2.06
4-5 Goals
29%
2.74
6+ Goals
11%
6.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.73
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
11%
5.28
X/2
6%
7.52
X/X
15%
6.07
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.85
2/2
12%
4.69
2/X
5%
13.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.85 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
46%
+4.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.1pp
23%
Away Win
30%
-6.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.2pp
62%
BTTS Yes
64%
-2.9pp
38%
BTTS No
36%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FK Orenburg v Khimki — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Khimki EU Bookmakers 33%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -12%
1.63/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.20
-6% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 74%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.2
24.9 Crosses 18.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

FK Orenburg vs Khimki Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Khimki
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.01 xG 0.74
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
323 Passes 267
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
30 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.10.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-0 HT 2-0 Khimki Khimki RUK
22.09.2024 Khimki Khimki 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
31.07.2024 Khimki Khimki 1-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
04.11.2022 Khimki Khimki 2-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
03.09.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 3-1 HT 2-1 Khimki Khimki RUS
31.10.2019 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-2 HT 0-2 Khimki Khimki RUK

FK Orenburg 1-1 Khimki — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
1-1
AWAY Khimki
1.30 xG 1.62
56% Ball Possession 44%
22 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 9
325 Passes 210
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
39 Box Touches 37
14 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Khimki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Orenburg and Khimki couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was FK Orenburg at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (62%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 56% of the ball to Khimki's 44%, shots finished 22-13, expected goals 1.30 to 1.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Khimki led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FK Orenburg and 1.00 for Khimki.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Khimki?

FK Orenburg 1-1 Khimki in the Russia - Premier League on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Khimki?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Orenburg win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 50%, draw 26%, Khimki 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FK Orenburg), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FK Orenburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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