Aris Saloniki 4-2 Asteras Tripolis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 10 May 2025

📅10/05/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.98
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.62
6+ Goals
11%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 30% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.16
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.15
X/1
16%
4.11
X/2
5%
10.2
X/X
8%
4.97
2/1
9%
24.65
2/2
12%
8.61
2/X
8%
17.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
57%
-1.0pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.5pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+2.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.3pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Asteras Tripolis EU Bookmakers 22%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.32/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.17
-10% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +15%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
391 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
20.2 Crosses 16.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aris Saloniki
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Asteras Tripolis
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.48 xG 1.18
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
429 Passes 271
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2025 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 0-2 HT 0-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
23.12.2024 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 2-1 HT 0-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
31.08.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-1 HT 0-0 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
03.01.2024 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 3-2 HT 1-2 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
03.09.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 3-2 HT 1-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
08.01.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 3-0 HT 2-0 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aris Saloniki
4-2
AWAY Asteras Tripolis
3.22 xG 0.86
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
445 Passes 341
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 14
6 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Aris Saloniki vs Asteras Tripolis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aris Saloniki got the better of Asteras Tripolis 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aris Saloniki as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aris Saloniki had 55% of the ball to Asteras Tripolis's 45%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 3.22 to 0.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aris Saloniki had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Aris Saloniki and 1.33 for Asteras Tripolis.

What was the final score of Aris Saloniki vs Asteras Tripolis?

Aris Saloniki 4-2 Asteras Tripolis in the Greece - Super League on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aris Saloniki vs Asteras Tripolis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aris Saloniki win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Aris Saloniki 56%, draw 23%, Asteras Tripolis 22%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aris Saloniki) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aris Saloniki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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