FC Lahti 1-1 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 10 May 2026

📅10/05/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
18%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.45
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.22
6+ Goals
9%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 28% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.68
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
18.15
X/1
18%
3.74
X/2
8%
14.3
X/X
8%
6.06
2/1
11%
23.1
2/2
5%
12.65
2/X
6%
21.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
67%
-5.3pp
21%
Draw
20%
+0.5pp
18%
Away Win
13%
+4.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.7pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Lahti EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 16%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.55/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/2.04
-25% / +70% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
420 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
Crosses 11.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Lahti
2W-3D-1L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.32 xG 1.16
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
372 Passes 307
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
05.03.2026 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 4-0 HT 2-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FLK
19.09.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 2-1 HT 2-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
18.08.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
12.05.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 3-0 HT 2-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
23.02.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 1-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
08.10.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Lahti
1-1
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.81 xG 1.01
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 3
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 6
386 Passes 194
80% Pass Accuracy 65%
26 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Lahti vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Lahti and IFK Mariehamn couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had FC Lahti at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, FC Lahti had 61% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 39%, shots finished 14-3, expected goals 1.81 to 1.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Lahti had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Lahti and 1.00 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of FC Lahti vs IFK Mariehamn?

FC Lahti 1-1 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 10/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Lahti vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Lahti win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split FC Lahti 61%, draw 21%, IFK Mariehamn 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (FC Lahti), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Lahti) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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