Hampton & Richmond 1-3 AFC Hornchurch — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.54
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.39
6+ Goals
7%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 34% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
16%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+2.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.3pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hampton & Richmond EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Hornchurch EU Bookmakers 43%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-5% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
288 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hampton & Richmond
0W-1D-0L
AWAY AFC Hornchurch
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
13.10.2020 Hampton & Richmond Hampton & Richmond 2-2 HT 1-1 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hampton & Richmond
1-3
AWAY AFC Hornchurch
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hampton & Richmond vs AFC Hornchurch
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Hornchurch saw off Hampton & Richmond 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; AFC Hornchurch found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Hampton & Richmond had 51% of the ball to AFC Hornchurch's 49%, shots finished 8-12.

What was the final score of Hampton & Richmond vs AFC Hornchurch?

Hampton & Richmond 1-3 AFC Hornchurch in the England - Conference on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hampton & Richmond vs AFC Hornchurch?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hampton & Richmond win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Hampton & Richmond 38%, draw 26%, AFC Hornchurch 36%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hampton & Richmond) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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