Toluca 2-2 Houston Dynamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Concacaf League Cup, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.61
No
53%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.73
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.26
6+ Goals
12%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.73 — our 27% vs market 21.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.61
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
14%
5.63
X/2
9%
5.7
X/X
12%
4.81
2/1
10%
27.5
2/2
16%
3.68
2/X
8%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+4.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-3.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.6pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toluca EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Houston Dynamo EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +57%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
324 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
Crosses 14.0
Yellow Cards 0.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
2-2
AWAY Houston Dynamo
0.78 xG 1.86
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 3
323 Passes 350
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 26
21 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Toluca vs Houston Dynamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca and Houston Dynamo shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Toluca at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Toluca had 49% of the ball to Houston Dynamo's 51%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.78 to 1.86.

What was the final score of Toluca vs Houston Dynamo?

Toluca 2-2 Houston Dynamo in the Concacaf League Cup on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toluca vs Houston Dynamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Toluca 41%, draw 26%, Houston Dynamo 33%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Toluca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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