Monarcas Morelia 3-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 10 Aug 2025

📅10/08/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.33
Draw
20%
4.62
Away
10%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
27%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
2%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
71%
-1.0pp
21%
Draw
18%
+2.1pp
10%
Away Win
11%
-1.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 14%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -16%
1.80/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/2.58
-16% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -26%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
446 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 212 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monarcas Morelia
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
09.02.2025 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-1 HT 1-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
26.08.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 HT 1-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
14.04.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3-3 HT 1-2 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
05.10.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 0-0 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
14.04.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-1 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
22.10.2022 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
POST-MATCH Monarcas Morelia vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monarcas Morelia beat Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Monarcas Morelia as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monarcas Morelia had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Monarcas Morelia and 1.17 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.

What was the final score of Monarcas Morelia vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Monarcas Morelia 3-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Mexico - Primera A on 10/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monarcas Morelia vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monarcas Morelia win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Monarcas Morelia 70%, draw 21%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monarcas Morelia), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monarcas Morelia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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