FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
FC Tulsa v New Mexico United — Team-Based Signals
FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-0
FC Tulsa
USLP
1-2
HT 0-0
New Mexico United
USLP
2-1
HT 1-0
New Mexico United
USLP
2-1
HT 2-0
FC Tulsa
USLP
FC Tulsa 5-2 New Mexico United — Actual Match Statistics
FC Tulsa ran out comfortable winners over New Mexico United 5-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Tulsa as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%) came in.
On the day, FC Tulsa had 30% of the ball to New Mexico United's 70%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 2.18 to 1.45.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FC Tulsa and 1.83 for New Mexico United.
What was the final score of FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United?
FC Tulsa 5-2 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 10/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United?
Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tulsa win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split FC Tulsa 50%, draw 21%, New Mexico United 29%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tulsa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.