North Carolina vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
North Carolina v Tampa Bay Rowdies — Team-Based Signals
North Carolina vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 2-0
North Carolina
USLP
4-2
HT 1-1
Tampa Bay Rowdies
USLP
1-3
HT 0-1
North Carolina
USLP
0-3
HT 0-2
Tampa Bay Rowdies
USLP
North Carolina 2-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Actual Match Statistics
North Carolina nicked a narrow win over Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1.
As we said in the preview, our model had North Carolina as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (59%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, North Carolina had 38% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 62%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 1.96 to 0.94.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, North Carolina had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for North Carolina and 1.50 for Tampa Bay Rowdies.
What was the final score of North Carolina vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
North Carolina 2-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 10/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for North Carolina vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Before kick-off our model rated a North Carolina win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split North Carolina 48%, draw 23%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (North Carolina), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.