North Carolina 2-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 10 Aug 2025

📅10/08/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.63
No
41%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.7pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.3pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
57%
+1.9pp
41%
BTTS No
43%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME North Carolina EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.46/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.37
+7% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 81%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
16.6 Crosses 13.8
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME North Carolina
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.05 xG 1.39
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
389 Passes 335
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
20.10.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-2 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
24.03.2024 North Carolina North Carolina 1-1 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
18.07.2020 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-2 HT 2-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
22.08.2019 North Carolina North Carolina 4-2 HT 1-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
09.06.2019 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-3 HT 0-1 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
02.09.2018 North Carolina North Carolina 0-3 HT 0-2 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME North Carolina
2-1
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.96 xG 0.94
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
237 Passes 431
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 8
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH North Carolina vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

North Carolina nicked a narrow win over Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had North Carolina as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, North Carolina had 38% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 62%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 1.96 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, North Carolina had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for North Carolina and 1.50 for Tampa Bay Rowdies.

What was the final score of North Carolina vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

North Carolina 2-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 10/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for North Carolina vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Before kick-off our model rated a North Carolina win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split North Carolina 48%, draw 23%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (North Carolina), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (North Carolina) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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