Mozambik 2-1 Gine Bissau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 10 Sep 2024

📅10/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.45
Over 2.5
34%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.29
No
62%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2.08
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
17%
6.17
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-6.9pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.2pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.0pp
66%
Under 2.5
65%
+0.6pp
34%
Over 2.5
35%
-0.6pp
38%
BTTS Yes
40%
-1.5pp
62%
BTTS No
60%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mozambik EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Gine Bissau EU Bookmakers 26%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
0.88/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.66
-8% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +115% / -61%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 73%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
21.0 Crosses 19.6
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mozambik
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Gine Bissau
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
23.03.2019 Gine Bissau Gine Bissau 2-2 HT 1-0 Mozambik Mozambik AFUK
08.09.2018 Mozambik Mozambik 2-2 HT 1-0 Gine Bissau Gine Bissau AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mozambik
2-1
AWAY Gine Bissau
0.67 xG 1.43
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
314 Passes 247
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mozambik vs Gine Bissau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mozambik edged past Gine Bissau 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 30% / 30% — and on the day Mozambik made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mozambik had 55% of the ball to Gine Bissau's 45%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.67 to 1.43 — the balance of chances actually favoured Gine Bissau.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Mozambik and 2.00 for Gine Bissau.

What was the final score of Mozambik vs Gine Bissau?

Mozambik 2-1 Gine Bissau in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 10/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mozambik vs Gine Bissau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mozambik win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Mozambik 40%, draw 30%, Gine Bissau 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mozambik) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mozambik) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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