Kırgızistan 2-3 Özbekistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 10 Sep 2024

📅10/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.4
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
44%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.4
No
49%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.47
2-3 Goals EV+ ✗
52%
1.78
4-5 Goals
15%
4.83
6+ Goals
6%
27.5
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 1.78 — our 52% vs market 49.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
16%
+10.8pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.9pp
44%
Away Win
60%
-15.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
38%
+13.5pp
49%
BTTS No
62%
-13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kırgızistan EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Özbekistan EU Bookmakers 64%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +68% / -49%
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
258 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 426 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
Crosses 16.0
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kırgızistan
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Özbekistan
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
25.12.2023 Kırgızistan Kırgızistan 0-0 HT 0-0 Özbekistan Özbekistan HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kırgızistan
2-3
AWAY Özbekistan
0.92 xG 1.11
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 7
280 Passes 524
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 28
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kırgızistan vs Özbekistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Özbekistan edged past Kırgızistan 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Özbekistan as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kırgızistan had 37% of the ball to Özbekistan's 63%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 0.92 to 1.11.

What was the final score of Kırgızistan vs Özbekistan?

Kırgızistan 2-3 Özbekistan in the World Cup Qualifiers on 10/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kırgızistan vs Özbekistan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Özbekistan win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Kırgızistan 26%, draw 29%, Özbekistan 44%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Özbekistan), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Özbekistan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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